Solar import crash in South Africa in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year 2023. However, the overall capacity of panels imported over the past eight a long time has exceeded the top capacity of Eskom’s two greatest and most current control stations. Both of which are running over a decade behind schedule. The information on solar panel imports comes from Exchange and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) senior financial analyst Gaylor Montmasson-Clair.
Montmasson-Clair Said:
Montmasson-Clair recently published a chart on Twitter/X showing that the value of solar cells, modules, and panels had plunged to R2.2 billion in the to begin with half of 2024. Over the same period in 2023, the value of these imported products was R12 billion, about five times higher. The latest figure is also less than half the value of imported panels and related materials in 2022. However, Montmasson-Clair pointed out that requests showed up to be picking up once more in the moment quarter of 2024.
The combined capacity of imported panels during Q2 was about 1,000MW, making up the bulk of the total 1,367MW modern capacity imported in the first half of the year. One potential factor affecting the resurgent request is Eskom and civil tax climbs kicking in on 1 April and 1 July 2024, respectively. In addition, the period saw a report from Daily Dissident and a few warnings from industry experts about rising electricity prices in the coming years.
Montmasson-Clair said costs would play a key part in future requests for panels.
“With load-shedding not supporting request anymore and the ‘liberalization’ surge behind us, costs will be the main driver for the predictable future,” he said. Despite the surge in South Africa, Montmasson-Clair said that Africa continued to slack behind the rest of the world in solar uptake. The continent accounted for a fair 4% of the total solar panel trade volumes from China, the world’s biggest manufacturer of PV solar equipment. South Africa was the greatest importing market in the first half of the year, accounting for about a quarter of the add up to. The other greatest markets were Egypt, Nigeria, and Morocco. The chart below shows how the value of South Africa’s imported solar cells, modules, and panels changed between 2010 and 2024.
Beating Eskom’s greatest coal control plants
South Africa has imported almost 10,000MW’s worth of solar panels since 2017. That is more than the combined design capacity of Eskom’s two delay-ridden coal control stations — Medupi and Kusile. Construction on those two plants began around 2007 and was originally supposed to be total by 2014. Ten years later, they are still not conveying their add-up-to-plan capacity of 4,800MW each. It has taken less than half the time from the start of the plants’ construction for imported solar panel capacity to exceed Medupi and Kusile’s total capacity.
Generally, half of the solar panel capacity imported to South Africa arrived in 2023.
That huge request was driven by South Africa’s worst year of load-shedding. As well as tax motivations for homes and businesses investing in solar panels. While the surge in solar has eaten into Eskom’s income. It has also helped the control utility keep the lights on. With a high commitment from housetop solar during the sunny hours of the day. Eskom has largely been able to avoid tapping into its emergency peaking generation exterior of top power request hours. That has allowed it to recharge water and diesel levels sufficiently to meet requests amid top hours. Many family units with backup batteries also use an expansive portion of their consumption during the top hours and best up with grid control. If essential — amid the early morning hours, when in general request is low. In this way, solar control has played an instrumental part in Eskom’s recovery. Despite not being capable of giving dispatchable baseload control.
Conclusion:
The Solar import crash in South Africa is a multifaceted issue with significant implications for the country’s energy future. Whereas local manufacturing offers a promising elective, the move comes with challenges that require to be addressed. The decrease in imports can lead to increased costs and limited availability, impacting both large-scale solar projects and private installations. In any case, this downturn also presents an opportunity for South Africa to contribute to local production. Which may increase occupations and decrease reliance on worldwide providers. By exploring these challenges strategically, South Africa can strengthen its renewable energy sector and proceed with its progress towards a more maintainable future.
FAQ’s:
Cost of solar panels
South Africa imported a record sum, of solar panels in 2023. Generally, less than 100 million Dollars per year were imported, but in 2023, more than 450 million dollars were imported. Starting off the final year, there was a shortage of solar panels, and everyone was out of stock.
Intermittency and Weather Dependency. Whereas South Africa enjoys abundant sunshine for the most part, solar energy generation is inherently dependent on climate conditions. Cloud cover, rainy seasons, or indeed clean collection on panels can altogether reduce their efficiency.
Solar panels will now face a 10% moment charge, with industry players mixed on the improvement. Minister of Back Enoch Godongwana has gazetted a 10% import charge on solar panels. The choice comes amid what can as it were be described as a solar boom in the country.